Rising temperatures will likely accelerate the spread of vector-borne diseases, resulting in an increased demand for vaccines. European Pharmaceutical Review investigates a Morgan Stanley report on the pharmaceutical beneficiaries of climate change.
The future effects of climate change are likely to be wide-reaching. The pharmaceutical industry is no exception, with a rise in temperatures set to bring about new situations for companies to navigate.
The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that climate change will have an "overwhelmingly negative" impact on the world’s health.1 Pharmaceutical companies will therefore have to respond to this and solve subsequent health crises.
A report released by Morgan Stanley predicts that the pharmaceutical industry will benefit from a warming planet, as the spread of disease will become more prevalent, revealing opportunities for medicine markets. The report also identifies seven companies that are likely to benefit most from climate change.
According to the CDP (formerly Carbon Disclosure Project), almost 70 percent of biotech, healthcare and pharma companies have climate change integrated into their business strategy.2 This indicates that many businesses are expecting to adapt to rising temperatures.
Climate change and the spread of disease
According to the report, warming temperatures will "lengthen the transmission period and geographical range of vector-borne diseases," meaning that tropical diseases will find more locations to thrive in. The report identifies the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus as key in the spread of dengue, chikungunya and Zika. The former is also a vector for yellow fever.3 The researchers focus on these two organisms, due to their large potential impact.
These deadly diseases could become a global threat if the earth continues its warming trajectory. The researchers predict that by 2050, 385-725 million more people than today will be exposed to infectious diseases including the above. By 2080, this could reach one billion more than today.3
Europe is expected to be the most affected geographical area. Due to its current low risk, the increase of threat will expose a much higher percentage of the population than before, especially in regard to the two vectors. The report says that "high-latitude, high-income nations have, until now, been able to mitigate exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases," but these advantages have only masked the problem. The estimated number of people in Europe that will be exposed to the vectors by 2050 is approximately 400 million. The global number of people at risk from the mosquitos is predicted to be 900 million.3
Therefore, the spread of disease due to global temperatures is likely to be widespread, with many, especially in Europe, requiring medicine to combat the infectious conditions.
How pharma will benefit from climate change
When the risk of disease rises, there is more possibility for pharma to grow. The selling of medications such as vaccines will be a key part of the opportunities afforded to pharmaceutical companies as a result of climate change.
…almost 70 percent of biotech, healthcare and pharma companies have climate change integrated into their business strategy
The researchers estimate that $50-125bn of incremental vaccines will be needed for the additional population exposed. However, this could increase to approximately $200bn with branded pricing of more complicated vaccines, which are typically more popular in wealthier nations. On top of the current market value of $500bn,3 the pharmaceutical industry is set to gain a new, prosperous venture from the selling of more medication.
The companies that will profit
The Morgan Stanley report profiles seven pharmaceutical companies that are set to make the most profit from selling medications to treat diseases strengthened by climate change. Their findings were based o...
(All Rights Reserved)