The pharmaceutical market is growing fast. According to Statista, revenue in the global pharmaceuticals market is expected to reach US$1,156.00 billion in 2024, growing at an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.19% between 2024 and 2028. The largest market is oncology, predicted to be worth US$214.10 billion in 2024.
It’s also an industry that’s changing fast. Basic research is adding new approaches to treating specific diseases, and new technologies are allowing researchers to find new leads at lower risk of failure.
Changing the balance between small molecules and biologics
Biologics have changed the way that diseases are treated, allowing more effective management of life-limiting diseases such as cancer, and diseases like Crohn’s disease and rheumatoid arthritis that have major impacts on quality of life. Since the launch of the first biologic, Genentech/Lilly’s recombinant human insulin (Humalin), in 1982, the biologics market has grown, with half of the top 10 bestselling drugs in 2023 being biologics, all with blockbuster incomes. With the launch of new biologics expected in 2024, this market will continue to grow, challenging the traditional dominance of small molecule drugs.
The use of biologics, especially in low- and middle-income (LMIC) countries, is limited by the cost. The most expensive drug in the world, CSL Behring’s gene therapy Hemgenix (etranacogene dezaparvovec-drlb), costs $3.5 million per one-time dose. When biologics’ patents expire, this opens up the market to the launch of biosimilars, and the competition drives the price of the drug down. AbbVie’s biologic Humira (adalimumab), the best-selling drug of all time, lost its patent exclusivity in 2023. In July 2023 alone, seven number of biosimilar versions of Humira were launched in the USA. With this and other expiries, the biosimilars market will continue to grow in 2024.
The growth of AI in biopharma
Drug discovery and development is a long and costly process. According to the business services consultancy Deloitte in 2022, the average cost of drug development is around $2.3 billion. Taking a drug through clinical development can take ten or 15 years. Biopharma companies are looking to artificial intelligence and machine learning to speed up development, reduce the risk of failure and lower costs.
Training AI on patient data from medical records and clinical trials, and drug data from published literature, helps researchers to better understand diseases and learn more about the mechanism of action of existing drugs. It will also allow researchers to tweak molecules virtually and predict drug efficacy, safety and side effects before synthesis, so allowing the selection of only the compounds most likely to succeed in studies. AI has a role in repurposing drugs – either those that have reached the market successfully or failed during development – for a new indication.
AI can also be used to improve the manufacturing process, reducing waste, increasing efficiency and maintaining quality control. However, problems remain with the use of AI, including issues with patient confidentiality, the challenges of digitizing existing data, and the lack of standardization of tools and data across the industry.
Precision medicine growth outside oncology
Precision medicine has been a game-changer for cancer treatment. Using knowledge of biomarkers to select the right treatment for the right patient means that the patients most likely to respond can be fast-tracked onto the best medications for them, and those least likely to respond can move onto other treatments. Immunotherapeutics used in precision oncology are also associated with better outcomes and fewer side effects.
Interest is growing in precision medicines for those indications where the patient populations are heterogenous, there are a number of gene variants associated with the disease, and not all drugs are effective for all patients. Precision medicine has a huge potential in antibiotic stewardship, with rapid diagnostics allowing healthcare...
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